Scorpion Envenomations and Climate Conditions : the case of Naama Province in Algeria

Scorpion envenomations represent an actual public health problem in Algeria, at various levels, in three-fourths of the country provinces. A total of 903, 461 scorpion sting cases and 1996 induced deaths were reported in the country between 1991 and 2012. As the scorpion envenomation surveillance is based on passive system, the present study aims to analyse and to interpret the reported scorpion sting cases and to develop a forecasting model in order to perceive changes in the incidence early enough in Naama province, one of the endemic zone for scorpion envenomations. In addition to the epidemiological profile of scorpion stings, we performed time series analysis and regression analysis to estimate the relationship between scorpion sting cases and climate conditions. We also have explored the predictive power of alternative model incorporating seasonality. The epidemiological survey revealed that scorpion envenomations are observed through the year, round the clock, reaching peaks in July-August, and the more prone human body parts are upper and lower limbs. The time series analysis and regression analysis have shown that the scorpion activity in Naama province is climate dependent phenomenon; the temperature and precipitation are the main factors; they were used to derive the best predictive model for scorpion sting cases. Regression models produce reliable models to predict the number of scorpion stings provided that involved climate variables are on hand, and could therefore assist public health services as to be in state of preparedness by providing in advance the health facilities by the appropriate number of antivenom vials necessary.